Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes predicts BTC could decline to $100K and ETH to $3K if macro conditions worsen.
- Hayes sold over $13M in ETH, ENA, and PEPE ahead of potential slowdown.
- Some analysts argue Bitcoin volatility is shrinking post-ETF era, dampening fear of large pullbacks.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom Fund, warns that rising tariffs, weak credit markets, and soft job data could drag Bitcoin and Ether lower—possibly to $100K and $3K, respectively.
His preemptive sell-off reflects caution amid growing economic uncertainty.
Hayes Liquidates Large Crypto Holdings
Hayes offloaded more than $8.3M in ETH, $4.6M in Ethena, and $414K in PEPE, according to on-chain trackers.
Major disbursements and stablecoin holdings signal hedging in response to anticipated risk.
Macro Forces Could Push Prices Down
Hayes ties the outlook to weak US payrolls, slowing credit in major economies, and tariff escalation.
These factors may undermine investor appetite for risk assets and push down crypto valuations.
Bullish Voices Counter With Stability Claims
Some analysts assert Bitcoin’s volatility is muted compared to pre-ETF cycles.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and Blockware’s Mitchell Askew point to reduced drawdowns in recent months and long-term infrastructure maturity.
Final Thoughts
Arthur Hayes’ forecast underscores concern that uncertain global economic signals could correct crypto prices sharply. While skeptics argue Bitcoin is more resilient now, investors should monitor macro data and technical signals closely.
Frequently Asked Questions
What level does Hayes forecast for BTC if trends worsen?
He expects a decline toward $100,000 and ETH near $3,000.
Did Hayes act on his forecast?
Yes, he sold more than $13M across ETH, ENA, and PEPE.
Are others less pessimistic?
Yes—some analysts argue volatility has declined, reducing the dip risk.
